There were two double-digit percentage gains in silver and natural gas. Cocoa, frozen concentrated orange juice, Bitcoin, and Ethereum moved over 10% lower in November.
New highs for silver
Silver futures posted a 17.25% gain in November, while the other three precious metals moved to the upside.
The daily COMEX silver futures chart for March 2026 delivery highlights the explosive gain on November 28, which took silver to a high of $57.245 per ounce. Silver futures settled the month at $57.163, the highest nominal price in history.
Meanwhile, nearby February gold futures rose 5.59% to over $4,250, but remained below the October record peak. Platinum and palladium posted 6.96% and 2.21% gains, respectively.
Grain and oilseed futures turned in mixed results
The USDA finally released a November WASDE report after the government shutdown, which was slightly bullish for soybeans and corn, but remained bearish for wheat prices. Soybeans led the sector in November after President Trump and Xi’s meeting, opening the door for U.S. soybean exports to China.
Nearby January soybean futures led the sector, gaining 2.02%. Nearby March corn futures edged 0.84% higher, while the March CBOT wheat futures posted a 1.82% decline.
Seasonality hits the meats and supports natural gas
The 2025 grilling season ended in early September, with cattle futures reaching new record highs. Seasonality was the theme in the animal protein sector in October, and again in November, as live and feeder cattle, as well as lean hog futures, posted declines.
The February live cattle futures led the meats lower in November, with a 4.32% decline. The January feeder cattle futures fell 2.39% in the month that ended on November 28. February lean hog futures posted a 1.22% decline for the month.
While meat prices dropped in the heart of the offseason amid weak demand, natural gas futures rallied as the injection season ended and cold temperatures began to increase heating demand.
The withdrawal season began during the week of November 7, when natural gas inventories rose to a seasonal high of 3.96 trillion cubic feet, just slightly below last season’s 3.972 tcf peak. Natural gas futures prices reflected the uncertainty of winter demand in November.
The chart shows that NYMEX natural gas prices for January delivery rose 11.01% in November, settling at $4.85 per MMBtu, just below the critical technical resistance level at the March 2025 high of $4.908. Meanwhile, the resistance level on the January contract is far above the November close at the March 10, 2025, high of $5.992 per MMBtu.
Mixed results in other commodity markets
Crude oil futures were lower, with WTI January futures down 3.38%, and February Brent futures down 2.79%. Oil products kept pace with crude oil on the downside, with gasoline futures down 2.13% and heating oil futures down 2.85%. Crack spreads were on either side of unchanged. Rotterdam coal futures edged higher, while ethanol was lower for the month, both reflecting seasonality.
Soft commodities remain volatile, with FCOJ down 10.98% and cocoa futures down 11.94%. Cotton moved 3.03% lower for the month. World sugar was the sector leader, rising 5.41%, while Arabica coffee futures moved 2.40% higher amid continued Brazilian crop concerns.
Lumber futures fell 6.69% as the market is moving into the heart of the offseason for construction. Bitcoin and Ethereum prices tanked, with Bitcoin losing 16.67% and Ethereum falling 20.58% for the month.
The stock market edged higher in volatile trading, with the S&P 500 posting a marginal 0.13% gain. The long bond futures rose only 0.32%.
Factors to watch in December 2025- Seasonality and end-of-the-year window dressing
As 2025 winds down and markets enter the heart of winter, the odds continue to favor price weakness in meats and gasoline, and strength in natural gas.
As I wrote in the September and October monthly recaps, “The U.S. natural gas futures market tends to reach seasonal highs when the injection season ends and withdrawal from stockpiles begins in November.” Volatility is likely to remain elevated in NYMEX U.S. natural gas futures over the coming weeks. Meanwhile, meats are in a downtrend. Given the record highs over the past months, the live and feeder cattle futures could have more downside on a percentage basis than lean hog futures.
Keep a close eye on those metals, as gold, silver, and copper remain in long-term bullish trends. The continued decline in fiat currencies’ purchasing power remains a factor supporting gold, silver, platinum, palladium, copper, and the other nonferrous metals. Silver is in uncharted territory as the market heads into December, which could be a volatile month.
The bull market in stocks continues, but the economic and geopolitical landscapes provide more than a few roadblocks. Meanwhile, end-of-the-year window dressing could lift stocks over the coming weeks as many fund managers are compensated based on annual results. The odds of a lower Fed Funds Rate will rise as President Trump appoints a new Fed Chairman to replace Jerome Powell in 2026.
Expect continued volatility in the commodities asset class in December and beyond, and you will not be surprised or disappointed.
On the date of publication, Andrew Hecht did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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