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Oxford Industries (OXM): Buy, Sell, or Hold Post Q2 Earnings?

OXM Cover Image

What a brutal six months it’s been for Oxford Industries. The stock has dropped 39.9% and now trades at a new 52-week low of $33.62, rattling many shareholders. This might have investors contemplating their next move.

Is now the time to buy Oxford Industries, or should you be careful about including it in your portfolio? See what our analysts have to say in our full research report, it’s free for active Edge members.

Why Do We Think Oxford Industries Will Underperform?

Even with the cheaper entry price, we're swiping left on Oxford Industries for now. Here are three reasons you should be careful with OXM and a stock we'd rather own.

1. Same-Store Sales Falling Behind Peers

In addition to reported revenue, same-store sales are a useful data point for analyzing Apparel and Accessories companies. This metric measures the change in sales at brick-and-mortar locations that have existed for at least a year, giving visibility into Oxford Industries’s underlying demand characteristics.

Over the last two years, Oxford Industries’s same-store sales averaged 1.9% year-on-year growth. This performance was underwhelming and suggests it might have to change its strategy or pricing, which can disrupt operations. Oxford Industries Same-Store Sales Growth

2. Projected Revenue Growth Is Slim

Forecasted revenues by Wall Street analysts signal a company’s potential. Predictions may not always be accurate, but accelerating growth typically boosts valuation multiples and stock prices while slowing growth does the opposite.

Over the next 12 months, sell-side analysts expect Oxford Industries’s revenue to rise by 1.4%. Although this projection indicates its newer products and services will fuel better top-line performance, it is still below average for the sector.

3. New Investments Fail to Bear Fruit as ROIC Declines

ROIC, or return on invested capital, is a metric showing how much operating profit a company generates relative to the money it has raised (debt and equity).

We like to invest in businesses with high returns, but the trend in a company’s ROIC is what often surprises the market and moves the stock price. Unfortunately, Oxford Industries’s ROIC has decreased significantly over the last few years. We like what management has done in the past, but its declining returns are perhaps a symptom of fewer profitable growth opportunities.

Oxford Industries Trailing 12-Month Return On Invested Capital

Final Judgment

Oxford Industries falls short of our quality standards. After the recent drawdown, the stock trades at 10.3× forward P/E (or $33.62 per share). This valuation is reasonable, but the company’s shaky fundamentals present too much downside risk. There are better investments elsewhere. We’d recommend looking at one of our all-time favorite software stocks.

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